Hit Rates

How often does it actually happen?

30 hit rates, free. Gold and the major US indices, computed from real past sessions, not a live feed, not a prediction.

Strongest edges for Thursdayacross all instruments · from this week’s data

Does the opening gap fill back to the prior close?n=262 on Thursdays

Does the session leave a fair value gap unfilled at the close?n=262 on Thursdays

#3 · S&P 50097%

Is the week-opening range broken later in the week?n=261 on Thursdays

How these are graded

US futures, regular trading hours · 30 reports · 5 instruments

Gap & Open4 hit rates

Does the opening gap fill back to the prior close?96%▼ 91% 90dn=1,313Strong edge Does the day close in the gap's direction?48%n=1,308Coin flip Do outside days revert back inside the prior range?90%▼ 67% 90dn=51 ·thinStrong edge Is the week's opening price retraced during the week?37%▲ 45% 90dn=1,049Edge

Range & Breakout12 hit rates

Does the first hour produce a single clean break?78%▼ 72% 90dn=1,308Strong edge Does price reach 0.5× the initial balance beyond the break?53%▲ 56% 90dn=1,308Coin flip Does the opening 15 minutes produce a single clean break?46%▼ 35% 90dn=1,308Coin flip Is yesterday's high or low broken today?85%n=1,313Strong edge Is last week's high or low broken this session?63%▼ 59% 90dn=1,309Edge Is the week-opening range broken later in the week?90%▼ 86% 90dn=1,049Strong edge Does an inside day break out of the prior range?85%▼ 82% 90dn=1,262Strong edge Does today's range exceed yesterday's?50%n=1,313Coin flip Does the last hour make a new high or low of day?75%▲ 80% 90dn=1,308Strong edge Does this session break the prior session's range?52%▼ 42% 90dn=1,308Coin flip Is the overnight high or low broken during the day session?76%n=1,307Strong edge Does price trade back through the overnight midpoint?59%▼ 46% 90dn=1,307Edge

Continuation & Correlation4 hit rates

Does the first hour's direction hold to the close?56%▲ 60% 90dn=1,314Coin flip Does today's close match yesterday's direction?47%n=1,313Coin flip Does a green or red streak continue?47%n=1,313Coin flip Does the day's direction hold through the last hour?92%▼ 86% 90dn=1,308Strong edge

Timing & Volatility5 hit rates

Does this weekday close green more often than red?54%▼ 45% 90dn=1,314Coin flip Does this month close green more often than red?54%▼ 45% 90dn=1,314Coin flip Does this session print the day's high or low?15%▼ 11% 90dn=1,313Strong edge Does this weekday trade above average volume?48%n=1,313Coin flip Does today's range exceed the 5-session average?45%n=1,313Coin flip

Technical Levels5 hit rates

Does price close above the daily pivot?55%▼ 46% 90dn=1,313Coin flip Does price close above the 50% retracement level?55%▼ 40% 90dn=1,313Coin flip Does the session close inside the prior value area?29%n=1,313Strong edge Does an engulfing candle's direction carry through?44%▼ 33% 90dn=175 ·thinCoin flip Does the session leave a fair value gap unfilled at the close?97%n=1,313Strong edge

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Every number carries its sample size History, not a forecast How these are graded Free to read. Pro shows when it is stronger

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