Market Edge

Same setup. Very different odds.

Market Edge tells you when a setup is worth trading and when it isn’t. It reads five years of real market history and measures how each setup actually behaved, on Mondays versus Fridays, in quiet markets versus wild ones, so you take the version with the edge and skip the one that only looks the same.

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Overview
Market EdgeNAS100  ·  New York (RTH) · 2:30pm–9pm BST  ·  All history
Initial Balance Custom — not saved Configure Save template
In playNAS100 · initial balance
as of 3:02 PM ET · market open
Right now
Today the range set its high first, then closed just below the midline.
High formed first
breaks the low first 72%
Closed just below the midline
breaks up 45% from here
Monday session
83% clean break
Best move31% · moderate confidence
Lean long
83% single breaklong bias 56%

Today favours long: 83% of sessions break clean, with a 56% long lean.

The verdictInitial Balance · NAS100

On NAS100, the first hour resolves as a clean single break 80% of the time, while double breaks account for 14%.

1,310-day sample. Once it breaks, low volume (bottom 25%) shifts the reach rate to 52% — use the distribution below to size the target.

80%Single break
long biasof those, 55% long · 45% short
Play it
Trade the first-hour break in its direction, 80% resolve cleanly
Skip it
Fading a clean break, most single breaks run rather than snap back
How the session resolves 1,310 days
44%
36%
14%
7%
Breakout (↑) 44%Breakdown (↓) 36%Double break 14%No break 7%
Break it down by condition
Break typeStrong edge
Strongest when break type is Single break — 80%.
80%
Single break
80%
Double break
14%
No break
7%

What it means. The single-outcome rate for each break type bucket. The wider the spread between them, the more knowing this shifts your odds.

By breakoutStrong edge
Strongest when breakout is Breakout ↑ — 44%.
44%
By rejectionStrong edge
Whichever extreme forms first tends to get faded — 76% of days.
76%
By timeStrong edge
Clean breaks resolve early — strongest after 180min at 98%.
98%
By sizeStrong edge
The bigger the range, the more it commits — 0.75–1% at 85%.
85%
By closeEdge
Where it settles tips the odds — top quarter (75–100%) on 86%.
86%
By weekdayEdge
Mon is the cleanest day — 83% of the time.
83%
First breakCoin flip
Strongest when first break is Broke up — 84%.
84%
IB closedCoin flip
Strongest when ib closed is Green (up) — 81%.
81%
By colorCoin flip
After a red day, it hits 80%.
80%
By levelsReach read
After a break up, price reaches 0.5× the range 57% of the time.
57%
By performanceReach read
Most breaks travel to 1.5–2× — 91% get there.
91%
How to read this reportInitial Balance Explained: By Weekday, By Close, By SizeHow to read the edge, the sample-size flags, and where to act.
Where the edge is strongest
Break typeStrong edge
80%Single break
The single-outcome rate for each break type bucket. The wider the spread between them, the more knowing this shifts your odds.
By breakoutStrong edge
44%Breakout ↑
The single-outcome rate for each breakout bucket. The wider the spread between them, the more knowing this shifts your odds.
By rejectionStrong edge
76%Low formed first
Whichever extreme of the range prints first tends to get faded by the first real break. Read the opening minutes for which side set earlier, then lean the other way.
Recent historylast 10
9 of the last 10 sessions gave a clean single break.
How to trade this

First-hour range: breakout, breakdown, double break or no break, and how far it runs after. Trade the first-hour break in its direction. The distribution tells you how often it breaks cleanly vs chops both ways (double break) or holds inside.

IB window: first 60 min  ·  break: 5m close

The Market Edge report: today’s in-play read up top, the verdict and full condition breakdown below.

The whole idea, in one setup

A 96% average hides two very different trades.

Gap under 0.25 ADRTake it
99%Small gaps fill almost without exception. The average barely moves, so trade it normally.
Gap over 1.0 ADRSkip it
61%The news-driven opens. Nearly four in ten never close. This is where the 96% breaks.
First two hoursBe early
80%Of the gaps that fill, four in five are done inside two hours. Wait past lunch and the edge fades.

Gap fill on Gold · split by gap size · 1,305 RTH sessions since 2021

How it works

Three steps from setup to verdict.

01
Pick a setupGaps, opening range, fair-value gaps, pivots, sessions. Every setup Tradestar tracks has a Market Edge report.
02
We split it by conditionFive years of sessions, sliced by day of week, session, volatility, gap size and trend context, each with its sample size.
03
You get the verdictA ranked read of where the setup is strongest and where it is a coin flip, so you know which version to take and which to skip.
What moves the odds

The conditions that turn an average into an edge.

Every setup is sliced by the factors that actually change how it resolves. Stack the conditions in your favour and a coin-flip average becomes a trade worth taking, or one worth skipping.

Day of weekMondays and Fridays rarely behave the same.
Volatility regimeQuiet tape versus wild tape flips many edges.
Session & timeThe hour you trade changes the odds.
Gap & range sizeSmall versus large opens resolve differently.
Trend contextWith-trend and counter-trend are two trades.
InstrumentGold, Nasdaq, S&P and more, measured apart.
5 yrsof real market history
1,310sessions since Jan 2021
150+base rates tracked
Dailyrefreshed with new sessions
Free, foreverThe headline hit rates

150 base rates across every setup and instrument, each with its sample size. Enough to know what tends to happen. That is the Hit Rates page.

Browse the hit rates
With ProThe conditions underneath

Every conditional split, by day, session, volatility and more, ranked so you see exactly where each setup is strongest and where to stand aside.

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