Position size sets the number before you ever place a trade. Enter your account and your risk per trade to see it, and how likely a streak that long really is.
Chance of hitting that many straight losses at least once over 100 trades.
Risking 4.0% per trade, it takes 25 straight losses to blow the account. You need roughly a 30% win rate for that streak to stay unlikely across 100 trades.
You don’t control your win rate on any given trade, the market decides that. What you do control, completely, is how much you risk per trade, and that single number sets how many consecutive losses it takes to end the account.
Risk 10% a trade and ten losses in a row wipes you out. Losing streaks that long aren’t exotic, they’re a normal feature of even a good edge (the losing streak calculator shows the real odds). Risk 1% and the same streak barely dents you.
The honest exercise isn’t predicting your win rate. It’s sizing your risk so the losing streak your edge will eventually hand you is a bad week, not the end of the account.
Tradestar tracks your real drawdown against your prop firm’s rules live, with proximity alerts before you’re close to the limit, not a spreadsheet you check after the fact.
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